Prospects for joint growth of domestic and export amid the influence of COVID-19
The growth of the Bio-Health industry is expected to continue until next year.
Among the 13 major businesses in Korea, it was forecasted the most positive market along with rechargeable batteries.
The Korea Institute for Industrial Economics & Trade (KIET) recently published a report titled, ‘Prospects of 13 key industries in 2022’, through the KIET Industrial Economic Reviews.
The report expects exports of 13 major industries (automobiles, shipbuilding, general machinery, steel, refined oil, petrochemical, textile, bio-health, ICT devices, appliance, semiconductor, display, rechargeable batteries) to slow down by 3.4% next year.
Although the growth of the 13 key businesses will continue to rise due to the recovery of global demand and increasing export prices, the growth will slow significantly (compared to 25.6% in 2021) due to constraints such as the base effect, the spread of COVID-19 delta variant in Southeast Asia, the imbalance in semiconductor supply and demand, and China’s economic slowdown.
Except for automobiles, shipbuilding, appliances, and displays, domestic demand of most industries is predicted to increase, and production will expand in most sectors, but the increase would be somewhat limited.
As for the bio-health sector, it is predicted that exports will continue to grow due to increased orders for COVID-19 vaccines, expanded biosimilar markets in major countries, and increased exports of medical devices.
It is estimated that the annual exports of the bio-health sector will increase by 12.1% from last year to USD 15.5 billion, and they will grow 6.4% from here to reach USD 16.5 billion next year.
Although the growth rate is expected to be only half of this year, the figure is nearly twice as high as the average growth forecast for the 13 major industries.
Domestic demand in bio-health will grow as demand for vaccines and pharmaceutical products related to COVID-19 drives, and it is predicted that next year will also grow 8.3% despite the base effect of 13~14% growth for two consecutive years.
Imports will also grow 7.6%, far lower than this year’s forecast of 21.7%, but annual imports will exceed USD 20 billion.
There is a possibility of supply chain risks such as adjustment of exports of raw materials, but it is analyzed that the growth will continue as imports of COVId-19 vaccines and raw materials for pharmaceutical products persist.
The production was suggested at 7.6%, slightly lower than this year’s forecast (9.7%), with annual production expected to reach KRW 41.92 trillion.
It is estimated that domestic contract manufacturing of vaccines and biopharmaceuticals will increase while the demand for diagnostic kits will decrease.
